COP30: what was decided and what does it mean in practice for business?

COP30, the United Nations annual climate summit, took place in in Belém, at the mouth of the Amazon in Brazil on 10 to 22 November 2025. 

This year’s COP took place against a very challenging backdrop. Energy demand is increasing globally, complicating the transition away from fossil fuels, while political divisions and high living costs are testing many countries’ resolve to tackle climate change. Given the current geopolitical situation, this year’s COP negotiations were always going to be particularly difficult.

NDCs: national climate plans fall short

This was the COP where countries were meant to submit updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) - containing their climate targets for 2035.

However, the updated NDCs submitted so far (accounting for around 70% of global emissions) fall short of what is needed to keep within the goals of the Paris Agreement of holding the increase in the global average temperature this century to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C. Before the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015, the projection was a 4°C increase – the current projection is a 2.3–2.5°C increase.

Notwithstanding that, the parties at this year’s COP reaffirmed the Paris Agreement temperature goal and so the 1.5-2°C temperature range remains the “north star” of global climate ambition. 

For details of the UN’s analysis of global emissions, see our previous COP blog post. 

No roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels 

At COP28 in Dubai in 2023, the final text included a call for the parties to transition away from fossil fuels (see our previous blog post).

One of the most debated topics at this year’s COP has been the development of a global roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels. Negotiations centered on defining realistic timelines, addressing differentiated responsibilities between developed and developing countries, and securing financial mechanisms to support a just transition. These discussions are critical to aligning global efforts with the Paris Agreement and sending a clear signal to markets and policymakers about the urgency of decarbonisation.

However, at this year’s COP, despite around 80 countries pushing for the inclusion of a roadmap in the final COP text, no agreement was reached on this. Instead, COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago pledged to create a roadmap focused on a just transition away from fossil fuels, which will continue over the next year. This will essentially create a coalition of the willing – the roadmap will be voluntary and will sit outside of the COP process. The same set-up will be used to create a new roadmap to halt deforestation this decade.

Forests and deforestation 

The clear highlight of this year’s COP was the launch of the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF). 

Linklaters has advised on the structuring of the $125bn Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF)’s investment arm, an unprecedented initiative spearheaded by the Government of Brazil, President of COP30, working in cooperation with, among others, The World Bank. The TFFF, which Brazil launched at COP30 after making a foundational $1 billion commitment at the United Nations, is a once-in-a-generation initiative that seeks to secure the future of tropical forests via an innovative financing mechanism.

The TFFF will operate by mobilising public, philanthropic and private capital and reinvesting such funds in a diversified investment portfolio. Revenues generated by the TFFF will reward tropical forest countries a fixed amount per hectare of conserved or restored forest while seeking to maintain the TFFF’s capital base, ensuring the facility’s long-term sustainability; a portion of such payments will be directed to Indigenous Peoples and local communities in those countries.

The Linklaters team is led by Structured Climate Finance Partner and Financial Times Innovative Lawyers for Sustainable Finance 2024 Award winner Alex Shopov, Blended Finance Funds Partner and Green Ambassador Martin Mager, Partners Melinda Perera, Nicki Kayser, Joakim-Antoine Charvet, Derek Poon and John Hwang and Managing Associate Mark Watts.

For more information, see the TFFF press release and Linklaters press release.

And as mentioned above, COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago has pledged to create a deforestation roadmap over the next year. The roadmap will be voluntary and will sit outside of the COP process.

Adaptation and just transition gain ground 

Previous COPs have been characterised by their focus on climate mitigation. In contrast, this year’s COP has focused for the first time on climate adaptation and a “just transition”. 

In particular, COP30 agreed a target to mobilise USD 1.3 trillion annually for developing countries for climate action by 2035, and an expectation for developed countries to triple adaptation finance to $300 billion per year, although that timeline is five years longer than what developing nations were asking for. Also, just transition is one of the five priorities of the Baku-to-Belem finance roadmap to channel USD 1.3 trillion into developing countries each year by 2035. In addition, 59 indicators were agreed for the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), although it is difficult to see at this stage what their practical effect would be. The COP agreement also included a decision to adopt a new just transition mechanism, a new initiative aimed at enhancing global cooperation to support workers and communities affected by the energy transition.

The impression from those on the ground was that social participation at this year’s COP has been particularly significant, with climate justice and equitable implementation featuring prominently in discussions, with notable involvement from traditional communities.

Trade makes it on the COP agenda 

For the first time, trade talks made it on to the official COP agenda – with the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) attracting strong criticism from some of the EU’s main trading partners. Notwithstanding that, the EU held its ground on its plans (see our previous blog post).

The final COP text “reaffirms that measures taken to combat climate change, including unilateral ones, should not constitute a means of arbitrary or unjustifiable discrimination or a disguised restriction on international trade” and a new Integrated Forum on Climate Change and Trade (IFCCT) will be set up as a dialogue platform, which could be an opportunity to align CBAMs and coordinate the design of compliance carbon markets.

Further information 

For more details of what else was agreed at this year’s COP, see COP30: Belem Package and Global Mutirão decision. 

Turkey has won the bid to host COP31 in Antalya next year. 

Main takeaways for business 

Although the press have dubbed this a COP of “modest” results, in light of the current geopolitical and economic climate, the fact that nearly 200 countries agreed to reaffirm their continued climate commitment is no small feat. According to UN climate chief Simon Stiell: “I’m not saying we’re winning the climate fight. But we are undeniably still in it…”

The pace of climate action may not be happening at the speed needed to keep within the goals of the Paris Agreement but, importantly, progress on climate action and the energy transition continues nonetheless. In particular, clean energy finance has grown by 77% since 2021 to twice the level of fossil fuel investment, with approximately USD 2.2 trillion expected to flow into sustainable sources this year. The final Mutirao decision acknowledges that “significant global progress has been made over the last decade, including rapid advancements and declining costs of technologies and record levels of global renewable energy capacity and clean energy investments”.

The financial sector and corporates need policy clarity and consistency and the right financial incentives to stay the course on climate ambition and the energy transition. And that is something that is best assessed at national and regional level. For example, the UK government remains committed to its flagship clean energy mission and the EU, despite the uncertainties brought on by its “simplification” agenda, is still committed to its wider decarbonisation agenda. 

Stay tuned for our new ESG Legal Outlook in January 2026 where we will look at the key ESG trends to expect across the globe. 

*With thanks to the Mattos Filho team for their insights from the ground at this year’s COP.