COP30: first results after week 1

COP30, the United Nations climate summit, started in Belém, at the mouth of the Amazon in Brazil on 10 November 2025 and will run until 21 November. 

Given the current geopolitical situation, this year’s COP negotiations are particularly complex. 

There has also been a notable absence of some world leaders at this year’s conference and attendee levels including from the private sector were down from COP29 – some of which has been down to logistical challenges.

The absence of the US administration has arguably increased the focus on China and India, with China’s delegation being reported as having the largest delegation after the host country Brazil. A report released on 11 November by the Taskforce on Net Zero Policy found that, contrary to narratives of climate fatigue and policy rollbacks, progress has continued across most regions over the past year, albeit unevenly, with the “centre of gravity” shifting towards Asia Pacific and the Global South. 

In this blog post, we look at some of the key announcements made during the first week of COP30.

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)

Central to COP30 is the submission and strengthening of NDCs, which represent each country’s plan for how to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. 

Countries were expected to submit updated NDCs by February 2025, but 95% of governments missed this deadline. The NDC Synthesis Report, released by the UN on 28 October before the start of COP30, revealed that only 64 countries had (at the time) submitted updated NDCs, despite all being required to do so ahead of COP30.  However, there was an uptick of counties announcing updated NDCs as COP got underway. 

On 10 November, an update to the NDC Synthesis Report based on the total number of 86 NDCs submitted by 113 governments (accounting for 68% of global emissions) was released, which stated that total global GHG emissions are projected to fall by 12% in 2035 compared to 2019 levels. This compares to a projected emissions increase of between 20% and 48% for 2035, before the adoption of the Paris Agreement. 

However, over 80 countries are still to submit their updated NDCs, including India and Saudi Arabia.

Despite this, from a scientific point of view, the current outlook is not good. As discussed in our previous blog post, as things currently stand, scientists across the globe are predicting a significant overshoot of the 1.5-2C warming limit in the Paris Agreement and the Emissions Gap Report 2025 published by the UN in the lead up to COP30 shows the world is currently on course for 2.3C to 2.8C of warming by 2100 under current projections.  

On 12 November, the International Energy Agency (IEA) also published its latest World Energy Outlook reflecting the latest energy data, technology and market trends, and government policies. This year’s outlook stressed that energy security remains a major factor for governments, with countries adopting diverse strategies to balance security, affordability, and emissions reduction. The IEA Outlook 2025 restored its Current Policies Scenario (CPS) (being the scenario based on government policies and regulations that are already in place), which had been removed from several prior reports. Under the CPS, oil and gas demand continues to increase until 2050 if governments do not make any policy progress – this marks a significant departure from several previous years, when the IEA expected that fossil fuels would peak some time this decade. 

Methane emissions

A few days ahead of the official start of the conference, the statement “Drastically Reducing Methane Emissions in the Global Fossil Fuel Sector” was signed by Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Kazakhstan, Norway, and the UK committing to achieve near zero methane emissions across the fossil fuel sector. 

Methane is a greenhouse gas several times more potent than CO2 so reducing these emissions are among the most critical actions that can be taken in the short term to slow the rate of climate change. 

The Statement outlines six actions to accelerate reductions across the oil and gas value chain, including robust measurement and verification, ending routine flaring and venting by 2030, supporting low- and middle-income producer countries, and establishing a panel of governments to develop a near-zero methane intensity marketplace, with progress to be reported in 2026. The move is seen as a step forward in promoting diversified natural gas, where fuel buyers may pay a premium for supplies with lower emissions during production and transportation.

The UK and Brazil also launched a “Super Pollutant Country Action Accelerator” under the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) to drive reductions in methane, HFCs, and air pollutants that cause warming, across 30 developing countries by 2030, with an initial USD 25 million funding.

Energy efficiency / cooling 

On 11 November, the COP30 Presidency and the Cool Coalition (led by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)) launched the Global Cooling Pledge which has been endorsed by 72 countries. The initiative aims to reduce cooling-related emissions by 68% by 2050. According to a new UNEP report, global cooling demand is expected to triple by 2050, further driving climate change and straining power grids. The document also notes that a pathway to sustainable cooling could reduce cooling-related emissions by 64% by 2050, protect 3 billion people from rising heat, and save up to USD 43 trillion in avoided electricity and infrastructure costs. 

The Brazil COP30 presidency and UNEP’s Cool Coalition also announced that the 185 cities would join the Beat the Heat initiative to localise a plan to reduce cooling-related emissions by 2050.

Adaptation and physical risk

With typhoons hitting Southeast Asia this month, while areas of Jamaica and Brazil are still clearing debris from damaging storms, the topic of “adaptation” is firmly in focus. 

Carbon markets

Despite there being no formal Article 6 negotiations at this COP, there have been a number of announcements. 

On 7 November 2025, the European Union and Brazil jointly launched the Declaration on the Open Coalition on Compliance Carbon Markets. The Declaration recognises carbon pricing and market mechanisms as key tools to advance climate action globally and implement national climate plans. The Open Coalition (joined by 13 countries including China, UK, and Canada) provides a platform for countries to work together on the development of compliance carbon markets and carbon pricing policies to enable progress and achieve the Paris Agreement goals. 

In other developments, on 5 November 2025, the Coalition to Grow Carbon Markets launched a government-backed framework ahead of COP30 to drive corporate uptake of high-integrity carbon credits. The coalition aims to scale private finance into credible carbon markets and called for additional governments to join by 2026.

AI 

Unsurprisingly, there has been a focus on the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) given it is expected to transform the energy sector, accelerating electricity demand as the world enters a new "Age of Electricity."

The IEA Outlook 2025 (see above) discusses the ballooning energy use by data centres, with investment in data centres expected to reach $580 billion in 2025, surpassing the $540 billion invested in global oil supply in 2025.

During Science and Technology Day, on 10 November, the Green Digital Action Hub was launched — a platform that supports technological climate solutions in 82 countries. The GDA Hub intends to provide tools, expertise, and data to support countries scale up green technologies, reduce the environmental footprint of technology and ensure access to sustainable digital solutions for all. The new hub builds on the COP29 Declaration on Green Digital Action (see ITU’s press release).

During the same session, the AI Climate Institute was launched — a global initiative that aims to support governments in developing technology-based solutions for climate action.

Other developments 

In other developments, a Declaration on Information Integrity on Climate Change has been endorsed by Brazil, Canada, Chile, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Spain, Sweden and Uruguay, which commits to address climate disinformation and promote accurate, evidence-based information on climate issues. The Declaration calls on governments, the private sector, civil society, academia and funders to take action to counter the growing impact of disinformation, misinformation, denialism and deliberate attacks on environmental journalists, defenders, scientists and researchers that undermine climate action.

A coalition of organisations, Carbon Measures, has also been working to create a new carbon accounting framework that could potentially rival the GHG Protocol. Carbon Measures is understood to be a ledger-based system focused on capturing product-level emissions. An announcement regarding Carbon Measures is expected to be made at COP30.

UNIDO and the Industrial Deep Decarbonisation Initiative launched a plan around “Harnessing Public Procurement in High-Impact Sectors to Drive Climate Action and a Just Transition,” to align public procurement with just transition goals. The initiative is a coordination among countries that already have specific policies for public procurement in different sectors to advance the potential of sustainable public procurement in prioritising low emission cement, concrete and steel, fair labor, and inclusive action.

Looking ahead – attention is focused on Brazil’s push for a “roadmap” to go with the pledge that countries made at COP28 to transition away from fossil fuels.  

Although it remains to be decided whether Australia or Turkey will host COP31 next year, it was announced that Ethiopia would host COP32 in 2027.

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The Linklaters team is keeping a close eye on developments and will let clients know what the final outcome of this year’s COP means in practice once the summit has concluded.