COP30: What to expect from the Rainforest COP

What is COP30?

COP stands for Conference of the Parties, referring to the countries that have signed up to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). 

COP30 will be the 30th meeting of these parties, taking place on 10– 21 November 2025 in Belém, at the mouth of the Amazon in Brazil. See here for the official COP30 agenda. 

This global climate summit will bring together leaders from nearly 200 countries to agree on faster climate action and represents a critical moment in climate change policy.

Hosting COP30 in the Amazon underscores the need for emissions reduction and nature/biodiversity protection to advance together. It is set to be a defining moment for Brazil to demonstrate leadership on forests, nature, and the Just Transition.

The context: a decade after Paris

Ten years after the Paris Agreement was reached in 2015, countries’ efforts to restrict the rise in global temperatures are under renewed scrutiny. 

The Paris Agreement requires signatories to submit new carbon-cutting plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) every five years. The new NDCs are meant to contain countries’ climate targets for 2035.

However, COP30 arrives against a challenging backdrop. Energy demand is increasing globally, complicating the transition away from fossil fuels, while political divisions and high living costs are testing many countries’ resolve to tackle climate change. Given the current geopolitical situation, this year’s COP negotiations are likely to be particularly complex.

The sobering reality: climate plans fall short

Perhaps the most concerning development heading into COP30 is the stark inadequacy of current climate commitments. 

The NDC Synthesis Report, released by the UN on 28 October, revealed that only 64 countries had (at the time) submitted updated NDCs, despite all being required to do so ahead of COP30. These countries represent about 30 per cent of global emissions. Taken together, these plans would only reduce carbon emissions by approximately 10 per cent by 2035 compared with 2019 levels - around one sixth of the emissions cuts needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C. Scientists are clear that such reductions fall far short of what is needed: steep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions - up to 55 per cent by 2035 - are required to keep the 1.5°C goal alive, according to the Emissions Gap Report 2025 published by the UN on 4 November. 

The 1.5°C threshold was exceeded for the entirety of 2024 for the first time according to the European State of the Climate 2024 Report, and UN leaders increasingly acknowledge that it will likely be permanently breached by the early 2030s if current trends continue. UN Secretary General António Guterres said: “One thing is already clear: we will not be able to contain the global warming below 1.5°C in the next few years. Overshooting is now inevitable.” The Emissions Gap Report 2025 published by the UN on 4 November shows the world is currently on course for 2.3C to 2.8C of warming by 2100 under current projections.  

What will be discussed at COP30?

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)

Central to COP30 will be the submission and strengthening of NDCs.

Countries were expected to submit updated NDCs by February 2025, but 95 per cent of governments missed this deadline, including major economies such as China and the European Union. However, China announced its new NDC in September and the EU announced its  new NDC on 5 November .  

India, the world’s third-largest emitter, did not attend the pre-COP UN climate summit in New York last month, and ten nations in the G20 - who together account for three quarters of global emissions - have not yet announced new targets. However, large carbon emitters such as India and Indonesia are anticipated to reveal their updated plans at COP30, which could impact projections for 2035.

Whether COP30 can generate stronger NDCs from its signatories is a key question for investors, as these commitments will indicate both the level of ambition and the scale of expected policy shifts in various countries over the next decade. 

Ironically, COP30 has also been dubbed an “Implementation COP”, moving the focus from climate “ambition” to “action” - but with progress on previous climate targets in doubt and updated NDCs still largely missing in action, query just how much implementation will be achieved.

Climate finance: the Baku to Belém roadmap

At last year’s COP29 in Baku, countries agreed on a New Collective Quantified Goal to mobilise at least USD 300 billion annually by 2035 to help developing countries mitigate and manage climate change, with an aspiration of at least USD 1.3 trillion per year from both public and private sources.

The “Baku to Belém roadmap”, jointly led by the COP29 and COP30 presidencies, aims to clarify how the USD 1.3 trillion target can be achieved. Brazil is pushing for a focus on financial assistance to support developing countries in curbing emissions and managing climate impacts.

Investors are keen to see practical and innovative solutions for scaling up both public and private finance to drive real-world decarbonisation—especially in emerging and developing economies.

Nature and biodiversity: the Rainforest COP

Owing to its location in the Amazon, nature and biodiversity will feature prominently at COP30. Brazil’s presidency has put deforestation at the top of the agenda, recognising that reaching net zero will be impossible without halting and reversing nature loss, and announcements about a new forests financing initiative are expected.

The World Economic Forum estimates forests’ economic value at around USD 150 trillion, given their vital roles in carbon sequestration, climate regulation, flood control, groundwater recharge, air filtration, erosion prevention, and biodiversity protection. Nevertheless, 6.7 million hectares of tropical forest were lost in 2024.

Adaptation and physical risk

To date, the focus has largely been on “mitigating” the effects of climate change (i.e. reducing GHG emissions). However, this year COP will also be focusing on “adaptation” (i.e. dealing with and adapting to the effects of climate change). 

COP30 is expected to see the publication of indicators for measuring progress under the “Global Goal on Adaptation”. It will be essential for governments to agree on a clear set of indicators at COP30. COP30 will also need to increase focus on adaptation finance, potentially through announcements of a new financing target or comprehensive roadmap. 

The National Adaptation Plans Progress Report was released in October 2025, providing an update on Parties' progress with national adaptation plans. The report highlights a shift from the planning phase towards implementation: 144 countries have now initiated the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) process, and 67 developing countries have submitted their NAPs to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) by 30 September 2025. These efforts have been supported by USD 6.91 billion in Green Climate Fund (GCF) financing for 116 adaptation projects. Many countries have established strong institutional mechanisms, conducted thorough vulnerability assessments, and created coherent policy frameworks integrating adaptation across sectors and levels of governance.

Despite these achievements, significant challenges remain. These include the lack of dedicated modalities for full NAP implementation, uneven access to finance, complex project development procedures, limited capacity, and a continued reliance on external technical support. The report and accompanying statement from the Executive Secretary highlights an urgent need for acceleration, and well as major scale of support still required, particularly for vulnerable and developing countries. 

Carbon markets

COP30 will be unusual for carbon markets because there are no formal Article 6 negotiations scheduled until 2028. 

Following the conclusion of the Article 6 Rulebook at COP29, which established the framework for international cooperation through carbon markets (see our previous blog post), COP30 is expected to focus on strengthening implementation, particularly on how Article 6 can help channel private sector finance toward global climate objectives. COP30 will focus on finalising technical rules before the Article 6.4 market opens, following agreement on key implementation guidance at COP29. 

Sustainable fuels and energy transition 

At the recent pre-COP meeting in Brasilia, energy transition dominated discussions, culminating in the launch of the Belém Commitment for Sustainable Fuels (referred to as “Belém 4x”) by Brazil’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. This initiative aims to secure high-level political support for the ambitious goal of quadrupling global production and use of sustainable fuels by 2035. Supported by an International Energy Agency (IEA) report, Delivering Sustainable Fuels, Belém 4x seeks to encourage the adoption of clean energy sources such as hydrogen, biogases, biofuels, and synthetic fuels to replace fossil fuels and speed up the decarbonisation of the global energy system. Countries including Japan, Italy, and India have already endorsed the initiative, with further support expected at COP30.

Alongside sustainable fuels, the pre-COP meeting also highlighted urgent challenges in renewable energy and energy efficiency. The recent International Renewable Energy Agency’s (IRENA) report, revealed that although global renewable energy capacity reached a record 582 gigawatts in 2024, achieving the 2030 goals will require annual additions of 1,122 gigawatts. Energy efficiency progress remains particularly sluggish, having improved by only one per cent in 2024 against a needed four per cent annual increase. The report emphasised the need for countries to integrate renewable energy targets into their NDCs, raise collective ambition, and invest at least USD 1.4 trillion per year in renewables from 2025 to 2030 - more than double the amount spent in 2024 - to meet global energy transition targets.

Granary of Solutions 

The Granary of Solutions is a central component of COP30's Action Agenda, developed jointly by the Brazilian COP30 Presidency and the UN Climate High-Level Champions team. Officially launched during New York Climate Week in September 2025, the platform serves as a repository of climate action, bringing together sustainable solutions that demonstrate how the Paris Agreement is being implemented on the ground around the world. 

The Granary sources from over 300 initiatives and coalitions launched in the ten years since COP21 in Paris. The platform showcases a wide range of initiatives already driving change, from weather information systems co-created with local communities to private-sector innovations in marine biofuels for cleaner shipping to sub-national government actions that combine conservation, restoration, and sustainable production.

Challenges facing COP30

Logistical hurdles

Concerns have been raised regarding logistical challenges in Belém, including limited accommodation (partially addressed by cruise ships), high costs, and accessibility issues. Governments from Panama to Poland have warned of potentially needing to reduce the size of their delegations.

Some investors have indicated they will not attend COP30, citing logistical difficulties or a preference for attending other related events in Brazil such as the PRI in Person event in Sao Paolo on 4-6 November.

Questions about the COP process

As the impacts of climate change become increasingly apparent, the value of the COP “multilateral” process is being questioned. In particular, COP29 drew criticism for a climate finance pledge that fell far short of needs, stalled talks on fossil fuel phase-out, and broader doubts regarding the continued relevance of the annual summit.

Expectations for COP30 are relatively low, except for progress on nature and deforestation which have been highlighted as a priority by Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Recent press reports indicate that the United States will not send any high-level representatives to COP30. Instead, President Trump is said to be focusing on direct engagement with global leaders on energy issues outside the summit. It remains uncertain whether other US officials will participate in this year’s COP. Although President Trump initiated steps to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement shortly after taking office, the treaty’s withdrawal procedure means the exit will not become effective until 27 January 2026. So, until the withdrawal process has officially completed, the United States retains its status as a party to the Paris Agreement.

The US is not alone in this approach. Some other leaders are also expected to skip COP30. While 143 nations are confirmed to send delegations to the conference, only 57 heads of state or government are currently slated to attend official summit events. 

Nonetheless, the COP process, while imperfect, remains a key engine for climate action and a vital point for global cooperation and agenda-setting.

Looking ahead

While the challenges are immense and the current trajectory remains insufficient, the conference presents a chance to accelerate progress on climate finance, strengthen commitments on nature and biodiversity, and reinforce the international community’s commitment to achieving the Paris Agreement goals, even in the face of geopolitical headwinds. 

The Linklaters ESG team will be monitoring COP30 in detail and will provide regular updates as the summit unfolds. After the event concludes, we will offer a post-summit analysis, focusing on practical implications for companies and financial institutions worldwide.