COP31: What to expect?

What is COP31?

COP stands for Conference of the Parties, referring to the countries that have signed up to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) – the annual global climate conference.

COP31 will be the 31st meeting of these parties, taking place from 9 to 20 November 2026 in Antalya, Turkey. See here for the official COP31 schedule. 

COP31 is unusual in that it will be the first COP in which the hosting and negotiating roles are formally split between two countries - Turkey will host the conference and lead the COP31 Action Agenda, while Australia holds the Presidency of Negotiations, giving it authority over the negotiating texts and the formal decisions reached by parties. 

This global climate summit will again bring together leaders, businesses and civil society from nearly 200 countries to continue efforts to implement the Paris Agreement, although (as discussed below) with scientists predicting a global temperature rise exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, there is even greater urgency to cut greenhouse emissions to minimise the magnitude and duration of a 1.5°C overshoot alongside the need for stronger adaption and resilience measures.

The context: building on Belém

COP31 follows COP30, which was held in Belém, Brazil, in November 2025 and marked ten years since the Paris Agreement was reached. 

COP30 concluded with the adoption of the Mutirão decision which reaffirmed the call to scale up climate finance for developing countries from public and private sources to USD 1.3 trillion annually by 2035 as well as an expectation to at least triple adaptation finance by 2035.

However, COP30 did not deliver an agreement on a global roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels, despite around 80 countries pushing for the inclusion of a roadmap in the final COP text. Instead, COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago pledged to create a roadmap focused on a just transition away from fossil fuels. A similar pledge was made to create a deforestation roadmap which would also be voluntary and sits outside of the COP process.

Against this backdrop, COP31 arrives, at what the Presidency has described as, “a pivotal moment for the global climate process”, and the pressure is on to convert the commitments made in Belém into tangible action.

The agenda: from ambition to implementation

COP31 is described by the Presidency as “a COP of implementation and acceleration” (see COP31 Presidency 4^th letter), with electrification, climate finance, just transition and adaption and resilience being a key focus. 

Ahead of the COP, the Presidency launched its COP 31 Action Agenda during the June 2026 Bonn Subsidiary Body sessions. The COP31 Action Agenda is designed as a practical implementation platform that complements, rather than replaces, the formal negotiations, with a series of thematic days running throughout COP31 (see the agenda here).

The COP31 Action Agenda is based around ten priority themes, building on the five-Year Vision for the Global Climate Action Agenda launched at COP30. The Presidency has stressed that the proposed targets attached to each theme are not prescriptive and do not create new obligations for individual countries, rather, they are framed to support implementation (see COP31 Presidency’s 3^rd letter). 

The ten priority themes in the COP31 Action Agenda cover areas such as climate-resilient cities, food security and resilient health systems, as well as the following:

• Clean energy transition and electrification: Clean energy transition is a key theme and encompasses grid infrastructure, storage, efficiency, electrification, and access to critical technologies. The Presidency has set a target of increasing electricity’s share of global final energy consumption to 35 per cent by 2035 (having launched the 35-by-35 Global Electrification Pledge), alongside continued efforts on renewable energy deployment, grid modernisation and energy efficiency. The more politically divisive question is whether COP31 will succeed where COP30 did not, in securing a formally agreed, negotiated roadmap for transitioning away from fossil fuels.
• Zero waste and methane reduction: Recognising that methane is responsible for around 30% of current global warming and the waste sector is a major source of anthropogenic methane, another key theme presented by the Presidency is scaling circular economy solutions that prevent emissions at source.  With global waste generation projected to increase by 50 per cent by 2050, the Presidency has put forward a target of reducing the projected increase in global annual municipal solid waste generation by at least 50 per cent by 2035.
• Green industrialisation: This theme focuses on accelerating competitive, resilient, low-carbon industrial production through international cooperation, investment and technology deployment across hard-to-abate sectors. The Presidency has linked this theme closely to circularity, proposing a target of increasing the global circular material use rate – which it puts at only 6.9 per cent - to at least 15 per cent by 2035. 
• Rio synergies: Nature and biodiversity remain prominent on the COP31 agenda, albeit framed somewhat differently than at the “Rainforest COP” in Belém. The Rio Synergies theme aims to build on the momentum of COP30 to strengthen coherent action across the climate, biodiversity and land agendas, including through coordinated ecosystem restoration, carbon-sink protection and sustainable land management and stronger cooperation across the three Rio Conventions.
• Climate Implementation Bridge (BRIDGE): The Climate Implementation Bridge theme captures what the Presidency has identified as a key challenge facing the process - that as climate ambition in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) has grown, countries (particularly developing countries) continue to face significant barriers in accessing climate finance, preparing bankable projects and building the institutional capacity needed to translate commitments into action. BRIDGE aims to help countries, particularly developing countries, translate national climate and development goals into project pipelines and connect them with finance, technical expertise and implementation partners.

We are also keeping a watch on the Antalya Artificial Intelligence Pledge – a proposed voluntary framework for governments and other stakeholders to harness artificial intelligence (AI) for climate action while addressing AI’s own environmental impacts. 

Limiting 1.5°C overshoot and Nationally Determined Contributions

As with recent COPs, the adequacy of countries’ NDCs - the carbon-cutting plans that signatories to the Paris Agreement must update periodically - will remain a central issue at COP31. The latest round, often referred to as “NDCs 3.0”, was due from parties ahead of COP30 last year, with a number of countries not submitting updates. The Presidency has urged parties to submit any outstanding NDCs ahead of COP31. 

UNEP published a new report on 21 October 2026 – UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return - predicting a significant overshoot of the 1.5-2°C warming target in the Paris Agreement. The UNEP report finds that if current policies continue, warming could reach 2.8°C within this century and increase thereafter. If all NDCs are delivered and similar efforts continue, warming will be limited to 2.6°C. UNEP explains that these outcomes are worse than last year’s projections due to the withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement and revised estimates of historical emissions. New NDCs submitted since last year’s report have made a negligible difference on these projections (see UNEP’s press release).

Looking ahead

COP31 presents an opportunity to convert the financial commitments made at Belém, and the ambition reflected in recent NDC submissions, into concrete delivery, through the Presidency’s ten priority themes and its emphasis on moving from target-setting to implementation. 

At the same time, COP31 inherits unfinished business from Belém, most notably the absence of a formally agreed roadmap for transitioning away from fossil fuels, and the continued gap between the NDCs submitted to date and the significant emissions reductions needed. 

The Linklaters ESG team will be monitoring COP31 and will provide regular updates as the summit unfolds. After the event concludes, we will offer a post-summit analysis, focusing on practical implications for companies and financial institutions worldwide.